The first step in any process:

Monday-February 21, 2011

The first step in any process:

There is always a beginning and end to an argument, to a discussion and a process.

It is amazing what can happen in the world at any point in the day, week, month and year. For instance, it has been nine days since Hozni Mubarak stepped down as the leader in Egypt. Since then, many of the forces for change have been busy in jockeying for a leadership role as a result of that change.

Not only have individuals been busy in that process, but so have entire countries and their regimes. Iran, the continuing thorn in the side of anyone who wants true peace, is on the move to take control in the region. Egypt was the leader in the Arab world and it was one of the sole proprietor’s of maintaining the peace between warring factions. This was one reason why Mubarak should have been allowed to stay in his position, to guide the process of peace in the region until his legal term in September was up.

No doubt Iran will now make an attempt to take the role of leadership over a large segment of the Middle East. No question, the government of Mubarak was corrupt and violated the rights of its people. But what government doesn’t do that? It is all a matter of just how far into the process of oppression that a country is in. When a President, like Mubarak, is toppled new players come into the picture. These new players often are far worse than the ones they replaced.

In nine short days, the world’s balance of power has changed. In nine short days, the world is coming closer to the brink of tolerance that will only have two results war or peace.

I wrote last week about Iran sending ships through the Suez Canal, en route to ports in Syria, another questionable player in the region. One of the ships en route that Iran says is a frigate, was similar to the one that shot down an American naval plane in 1989. The Navy consequently sunk the frigate that was outfitted with weapons capable of shooting down a plane. The other ship that will make its way to Syria is a supply ship. The question of why and why now is Iran making this move is the one to ask. Iran is diverting their issue of unrest at home in away that now brings it more power and greater influence in the region. When any country can claim influence it creates hope for its people, no matter if it is a false hope.

Chances are, if Mubarak was still in power, these ships would not be bound for Syria’s shores and close proximity to Israel. If Mubarak was still in power, the United States would still have a foothold in the region. Part of the balance of power or the struggles of the region is a direct result of who is in power. The United States always gets criticized for their role in who stays in power and who gets the power. There is a reason why the United States sometimes takes a role in the process. It’s called maintaining the status quo or more simply put, keeping the peace.

In the process of democratization, which can sometimes become nasty a player, comes to light that can, in the long run, accomplish the ends to the means. Though most of the players in the Mid East are not the most optimal they become the lesser of two evils. Part of any political process that involves one country and or region is to support the powers that will conduct themselves appropriately and in a manner to keep the peace.

This week, as more demonstrations occur in the Mid East, look for other ruling parties to get their walking papers. In Yemen, Libya and Bahrain, where the people are calling for their current leaders to step down in the name of democracy, we could also see further erosion of America’s role in the region.

If our role diminishes, we will see the further ascendancy of those who falsely use democracy as a means to their end of gaining dominance over the regions people and its resources. With countries such as Iran inserting themselves in a political way, the influences of what has been successfully suppressed for so long will rear its ugly head. It is one thing to tell the people of the region who want more for themselves and their families that their voice is being heard. It is also another thing to make them think that what they are giving up in the process is a good thing, because what they often get as a replacement is far worse.

America’s role in the region should be to counter act these forces and still balance the peace with making clear the choice that the citizens of the region have in front of them. I said last week, “You cannot win an argument if you are not willing to make the argument.”

America’s leadership role has never been needed more than now. But we cannot lead in this effort until our own house is put into order.

Look at the protests we are witnessing here. Some equate the protests in the Mid East as messy democracy in action. Some equate the protests in our own cities as messy democracy in action. No question, messy democracy is happening, but when messy democracy results in deeper oppression then you are no further ahead than you were before. This is why America must step up to the plate and support the forces that will provide the growth of democracy in real time and in a real way.

As a student of political history I find these events spectacular. Never before have I seen two opposing cultures protesting for so much change at the same time but on the opposite sides of he world. We can watch the events unfold in the morning here live on TV while it is night time there and the same goes for them.

The operative word is watching. Both sides see unrest and both sides are watching for the erosion of influence. In the Middle East, observers watch for the radical element to take steps in the process of control. Here we are watching how the conservative side is taking steps in the process of control. In both cases, no one is asking the question what is right for democracy to grow and what is right for the people of the region. When we ask these questions we will find out that geography becomes a small piece of real-estate. When we ask these questions we will find out quickly the process starts with the people. When we ask these questions a government and its leaders that truly want democracy will listen.

Gregory C. Dildilian
Founder and Executive Director
Pinecone Conservatives

A footnote: The process of our democracy started with a discussion of a handful of men who we called patriots. Our process of democracy settled on a small piece of real-estate because our leaders were smart enough to listen!